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Beklager sent svar. Safari kræsjet i det avgjørende øyeblikket, og da gadd jeg ikke. Det pågående folkemordet i Palestina ga meg dog lyst til å prøve igjen.

Sitat av hollow Vis innlegg
Neida-okkupanten ble oppring flere ganger av Selenski som ville forhandle da invasjonen startet -total taushet i den andre linjen.
Her skulle det koloniseres.
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Det var også taushet og avvisning de russiske traktatforslagene til USA og NATO ble møtt med i desember 2021 før krigens utbrudd. Det er, som du ser, et gjensidig og langvarig problem.

Sitat av Prof. Vrøvel Vis innlegg
Men selvfølgelig på russlands premisser...
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Ja, Russland vinner krigen (samme hva våre tabloide medier feil, igjen, og igjen skriver (når begynte Russland å gå tom for missiler igjen? midten av mars ifjor?)) så for hver dag som går vil fredsbetingelsene i økende grad defineres på Russlands premisser. Ukraina kan ikke, og har aldri kunnet, vinne noen krig mot Russland – i det høyeste oppnå et og annet irriterende nåleangrep med varierende symbolsk verdi, som Russland har massive eskaleringsmuligheter i møte med. (Som man sier det i amerikanske maktsirkler for tiden: Miller had a point)

Gjør det meg til Russland-apologet å påpeke dette? I så fall er man banal – en parallell, kan man si, til den økende og kontraproduktive tendensen til å politisere etterretning (det performative, bilde-over-faktum-aspektet jeg snakker om nedenfor), som kanskje forklarer noe av våre lederes dårlige håndtering av denne krisen og krigen.

Sitat av Prof. Vrøvel Vis innlegg
Hvem faen bryr seg om hva de trenger? EU har 3x befolkningen og 10x økonomien. Og atomvåpen som de har råd til å vedlikeholde.
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Diplomater bryr seg om denslags. Ikke minst for selv å lykkes, som en viss Sun Tzu sa et eller annet om en gang. Det er derfor den amerikanske ambassadøren til Russland William Burns 1. februar 2008 (et par måneder før NATO erklærte at Ukraina skulle få bli medlem) sendte en konfidensiell rapport til daværende amerikanske nasjonale sikkerhetsrådgiver Condoleezza Rice hvori det står:

Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.
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Dog ser vi hva diplomatiet formår i Vesten i våre dager. Henry Kissinger skrev også om dette (i 2014):

Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a bridge between them.

Russia must accept that to try to force Ukraine into a satellite status, and thereby move Russia’s borders again, would doom Moscow to repeat its history of self-fulfilling cycles of reciprocal pressures with Europe and the United States.

The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of Poltava in 1709, were fought on Ukrainian soil. The Black Sea Fleet — Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean — is based by long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea. Even such famed dissidents as Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky insisted that Ukraine was an integral part of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.

The European Union must recognize that its bureaucratic dilatoriness and subordination of the strategic element to domestic politics in negotiating Ukraine’s relationship to Europe contributed to turning a negotiation into a crisis. Foreign policy is the art of establishing priorities.

The Ukrainians are the decisive element. They live in a country with a complex history and a polyglot composition. The Western part was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1939 , when Stalin and Hitler divided up the spoils. Crimea, 60 percent of whose population is Russian , became part of Ukraine only in 1954 , when Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, awarded it as part of the 300th-year celebration of a Russian agreement with the Cossacks. The west is largely Catholic; the east largely Russian Orthodox. The west speaks Ukrainian; the east speaks mostly Russian. Any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other — as has been the pattern — would lead eventually to civil war or breakup. To treat Ukraine as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for decades any prospect to bring Russia and the West — especially Russia and Europe — into a cooperative international system.

Ukraine has been independent for only 23 years; it had previously been under some kind of foreign rule since the 14th century. Not surprisingly, its leaders have not learned the art of compromise, even less of historical perspective. The politics of post-independence Ukraine clearly demonstrates that the root of the problem lies in efforts by Ukrainian politicians to impose their will on recalcitrant parts of the country, first by one faction, then by the other. That is the essence of the conflict between Viktor Yanuxkovych and his principal political rival, Yulia Tymoxshenko. They represent the two wings of Ukraine and have not been willing to share power. A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction.

Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine, have not acted on this principle. Each has made the situation worse. Russia would not be able to impose a military solution without isolating itself at a time when many of its borders are already precarious. For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.
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Det er ikke noen tvil om at slike sikkerhetsgarantier er viktige for Russland. Det har de alltid vært. Stoltenberg selv sier dette, selv om han selvfølgelig vinkler det i overensstemmelse med sin rolle som generalsekretær i NATO (og la meg nevne for de yngre leserne her inne at det slett ikke alltid har vært innlysende at militær NATO-konsensus skal være allmenn konsensus):

Then lastly on Sweden. First of all, it is historic that now Finland is member of the Alliance. And we have to remember the background. The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.

The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that.

So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite. He has got more NATO presence in eastern part of the Alliance and he has also seen that Finland has already joined the Alliance and Sweden will soon be a full member.
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Sitat av hemmeligegreier Vis innlegg
Herregud. Det er snakk om valutakurs. Drit i Google da, bare finn frem en hvilken som helst side som viser valutakurs.
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Jeg klarte ikke å finne noen bekreftelse på at “rubelen har krasjet totalt" og dette som et bevis på at sanksjoner fungerer. Kan du hjelpe meg?

Sitat av hemmeligegreier Vis innlegg
Nei, de som beviselig lyver og tar feil og ikke har peiling på hva de snakker om er de nevnte tingene.
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Ah!